沉积盆地波动过程分析研究现状与发展趋势          下载免费PDF全文

刘春平  金之钧  林娟华  李京昌 《地球物理学进展》2009,24(1):164-169

沉积盆地波动过程分析方法是一种较新的盆地分析方法,该方法以物理学中有关波的理论为基础,以波动的观点来分析地壳运动,本文介绍了沉积盆地波动过程分析的基本概念、发展过程、方法原理、研究步骤,从含油气盆地分析的四个主要研究内容论述了波动过程分析法研究现状,并探讨了它的发展趋势.  相似文献   

Bayesian methods for estimating multi-segment discharge rating curves   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Trond Reitan  Asgeir Petersen-Øverleir 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(5):627-642

This study explores Bayesian methods for handling compound stage–discharge relationships, a problem which arises in many natural rivers. It is assumed: (1) the stage–discharge relationship in each rating curve segment is a power-law with a location parameter, or zero-plane displacement; (2) the segment transitions are abrupt and continuous; and (3) multiplicative measurement errors are of equal variance. The rating curve fitting procedure is then formulated as a piecewise regression problem where the number of segments and the associated changepoints are assumed unknown. Procedures are developed for describing both global and site-specific prior distributions for all rating curve parameters, including the changepoints. Estimation and uncertainty analysis is evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) techniques. The first model explored accounts for parameter and model uncertainties in the interpolated area, i.e. within the range of available stage–discharge measurements. A second model is constructed in an attempt to include the uncertainty in extrapolation, which is necessary when the rating curve is used to estimate discharges beyond the highest or lowest measurement. This is done by assuming that the rate of changepoints both inside and outside the measured area follows a Poisson process. The theory is applied to actual data from Norwegian gauging stations. The MCMC solutions give results that appear sensible and useful for inferential purposes, though the latter model needs further efforts in order to obtain a more efficient simulation scheme.  相似文献   

Spatial rainfall model using a pattern classifier for estimating missing daily rainfall data     

Tae-Woong Kim  Hosung Ahn 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(3):367-376

Missing data in daily rainfall records are very common in water engineering practice. However, they must be replaced by proper estimates to be reliably used in hydrologic models. Presented herein is an effort to develop a new spatial daily rainfall model that is specifically intended to fill in gaps in a daily rainfall dataset. The proposed model is different from a convectional daily rainfall generation scheme in that it takes advantage of concurrent measurements at the nearby sites to increase the accuracy of estimation. The model is based on a two-step approach to handle the occurrence and the amount of daily rainfalls separately. This study tested four neural network classifiers for a rainfall occurrence processor, and two regression techniques for a rainfall amount processor. The test results revealed that a probabilistic neural network approach is preferred for determining the occurrence of daily rainfalls, and a stepwise regression with a log-transformation is recommended for estimating daily rainfall amounts.  相似文献   

Fuzzy process capability indices for quality control of irrigation water   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Cengiz Kahraman  İhsan Kaya 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(4):451-462

Water covers over 70% of the Earth surface and is a very important resource to people and the environment. Water pollution affects drinking water, rivers, lakes and oceans all over the world. This consequently harms human health and the natural environment. Water pollution can also affect the crops. So, water pollution is an important issue for humanity. Therefore, the control of irrigation water is a necessity. In this paper, a methodology based on process capability indices (PCIs) has been presented to control the levels of pH, dissolved oxygen (DO) and temperature (T) in dam’s water for irrigation. Fuzzy PCIs have been proposed for this aim. The fuzzy estimates of $ \hat C_p Water covers over 70% of the Earth surface and is a very important resource to people and the environment. Water pollution affects drinking water, rivers, lakes and oceans all over the world. This consequently harms human health and the natural environment. Water pollution can also affect the crops. So, water pollution is an important issue for humanity. Therefore, the control of irrigation water is a necessity. In this paper, a methodology based on process capability indices (PCIs) has been presented to control the levels of pH, dissolved oxygen (DO) and temperature (T) in dam’s water for irrigation. Fuzzy PCIs have been proposed for this aim. The fuzzy estimates of and are obtained for pH, DO, and T based on Buckley’s interval estimation approach and based on fuzzy specification limits. An application has been made for Kesikk?prü Dam in Ankara, Turkey. In this paper, Buckley’s approach is re-arranged to obtain a triangular fuzzy membership function because it cannot be obtained from Buckley’s approach in some situation.  相似文献   

Drought characterization: a probabilistic approach   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

A. K. Mishra  V. P. Singh  V. R. Desai 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(1):41-55

Using the alternative renewable process and run theory, this study investigates the distribution of drought interval time, mean drought interarrival time, joint probability density function and transition probabilities of drought events in the Kansabati River basin in India. The standardized precipitation index series is employed in the investigation. The time interval of SPI is found to have a significant effect of the probabilistic characteristics of drought.  相似文献   

Environmental decision-making under uncertainty using intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (IF-AHP)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Rehan Sadiq  Solomon Tesfamariam 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(1):75-91

Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a utility theory based decision-making technique, which works on a premise that the decision-making of complex problems can be handled by structuring them into simple and comprehensible hierarchical structures. However, AHP involves human subjective evaluation, which introduces vagueness that necessitates the use of decision-making under uncertainty. The vagueness is commonly handled through fuzzy sets theory, by assigning degree of membership. But, the environmental decision-making problem becomes more involved if there is an uncertainty in assigning the membership function (or degree of belief) to fuzzy pairwise comparisons, which is referred to as ambiguity (non-specificity). In this paper, the concept of intuitionistic fuzzy set is applied to AHP, called IF-AHP to handle both vagueness and ambiguity related uncertainties in the environmental decision-making process. The proposed IF-AHP methodology is demonstrated with an illustrative example to select best drilling fluid (mud) for drilling operations under multiple environmental criteria.  相似文献   

Ground motions observed during the 15 August 2007 Pisco, Peru, earthquake     

Hernando Tavera  Isabel Bernal  Fleur O. Strasser  Maria C. Arango-Gaviria  John E. Alarcón  Julian J. Bommer 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2009,7(1):71-111

A M_w 7.9 earthquake event occurred on 15 August 2007 off the coast of central Peru, 60 km west of the city of Pisco. This event is associated with subduction processes at the interface of the Nazca and South American plates, and was characterised by a complex source mechanism involving rupture on two main asperities, with unilateral rupture propagation to the southeast. The rupture process is clearly reflected in the ground motions recorded during this event, which include two separate episodes of strong shaking. The event triggered 18 accelerographic stations; the recordings are examined in terms of their characteristics and compared to the predictions of ground-motion prediction equations for subduction environments, using the maximum-likelihood-based method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 94(6):2164–2185, 2004). Additionally, macroseismic observations and damage patterns are examined and discussed in the light of local construction practices, drawing on field observations gathered during the post-earthquake reconnaissance missions.  相似文献   

Performance of A Combination Process of UV/H2O2/Micro‐Aeration for Oxidation of Dichloroacetic Acid in Drinking Water     

WenHai Chu  N. Y. Gao  Y. Deng 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2009,37(3):233-238

The decomposition of dichloroacetic acid (DCAA) in water using a UV/H₂O₂/micro‐aeration process was investigated in this paper. DCAA cannot be removed by UV radiation, H₂O₂ oxidation or micro‐aeration alone, while UV/H₂O₂/micro‐aeration combination processes have proved effective and can degrade this compound completely. With initial concentrations of about 110 μg/L, more than 95.1% of DCAA can be removed in 180 min under UV intensity of 1048.7 μW/cm², H₂O₂ dosage of 30 mg/L and micro‐aeration flow rate of 2 L/min. However, more than 30 μg/L of DCAA was left after 180 min by UV/H₂O₂ combination process without micro‐aeration with the same UV intensity and H₂O₂ dosage. The effects of applied UV radiation intensity, H₂O₂ dose, initial DCAA concentration and pH on the degradation of DCAA have been examined in this study. Degradation mechanisms of DCAA with hydroxyl radical oxidation have been discussed. The removal rate of DCAA was sensitive to operational parameters. There was a linear relationship between rate constant k and UV intensity and initial H₂O₂ concentration, which indicated that a higher removal capacity can be achieved by improvement of both factors. A newly found nitrogenous disinfection by‐product (N‐DBP)‐DCAcAm, which has the potential to form DCAA, was easier to remove than DCAA by UV/H₂O₂ and UV/H₂O₂/micro‐aeration processes. Finally, a preliminary cost comparison revealed that the UV/H₂O₂/micro‐aeration process was more cost‐effective than the UV/H₂O₂ process in the removal of DCAA from drinking water.  相似文献   

Effects of Salt on Microbial Populations and Treatment Performance in Purifying Saline Sewage Using the MUCT Process     

《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2009,37(8):649-656

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基于AHP和模糊综合评判的TBM施工风险评估   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

赵延喜  徐卫亚 《岩土力学》2009,30(3):793-798

岩石隧洞建设中面临很大和众多的风险,利用TBM施工的深埋长隧洞受多种不确定因素影响,具有随机性和模糊性,目前的研究方法难以对其进行准确定量分析。通过深入分析影响TBM施工的风险因素,建立了TBM施工风险综合评价指标体系。基于风险影响因素的层次性,提出了TBM施工风险二级模糊综合评判计算模型,并利用层次分析法(AHP)确定各级因素权重,利用模糊集法确定隶属函数,划分了风险接受等级。以南水北调西线工程深埋长隧洞TBM施工为例,应用二级模糊综合评判计算模型对该工程TBM施工风险进行分析,计算结果表明,该方法是合理性实用的。其理论、方法、思路和结论可供同类工程借鉴。  相似文献